2018 Housing Forecast

I feel fortunate to have Chief Economist Matthew Gardner on staff to provide valuable analysis of the economy and housing market. Matthew recently completed his national forecast which details his predictions for the 2018 housing market.

 

Posted on January 18, 2018 at 11:21 pm
Andrew Jackson | Category: Home Seller, Matthew Gardner Report, Real Estate, Seattle Real Estate

Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

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This blog post originally appeared on Windermere Blog, author Matthew Gardner.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Annual employment growth in Washington State slowed somewhat in the third quarter of this year, but still remains well above the long-term average. Additionally, the jobs that are being created are primarily quality, high-paying positions, which is important for the health of our economy.

Unemployment in the state remains at levels that are somewhat higher than I would like to see, but this continues to be impacted by a growing labor force and modestly slowing job growth. I still expect to see the rate drop a little further as we move through the final quarter of the year.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 24,277 home sales during the third quarter of 2016—up by an impressive 7.9% from the same period in 2015, and 6.8% above the total number of sales seen in the second quarter of this year.
  • Skagit County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with transactions up by 25.6%. There were also impressive increases in home sales in Thurston, San Juan, Pierce, and Grays Harbor Counties. Sales fell slightly in Jefferson and Kittitas Counties.
  • Overall listing activity remains low with the total number of homes for sale at the end of the quarter 11.2% below that seen a year ago. That said, I’m happy to report that listings have been slowly trending higher in 2016.
  • I’ve been thinking about how sales can continue to rise while inventory remains so low. I believe this is due to an uptick in first-time buyers. These buyers have no home to sell, so they don’t add to the number of listings; however, they do cause sales to increase when they buy. This is a good trend to see!

 

HOME PRICES

  • As demand continues to exceed supply, we are continuing to see upward pressure on home prices. In the third content_16229_WWA_GardnerReportQ3_Mapquarter, average prices rose by a substantial 10.2% and are 3.2% higher than seen in the second quarter of this year.
  • The current rate at which homes are appreciating cannot continue, and I anticipate that we will see a “cooling” start to take place in 2017.
  • When compared to the third quarter of 2015, price growth was most pronounced in Lewis County. In total, there were nine counties where annual price growth exceeded 10% and prices were higher across the entire region when compared to a year ago.
  • Although supply levels are slowly starting to creep higher, we are still solidly in a seller’s market. Rising inventory levels should start to do a better job of meeting demand next year, which when combined with modestly higher mortgage interest rates, will see the region move closer toward becoming a balanced market.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by twenty-two days when compared to the third quarter of 2015.
  • All the counties that comprise this report saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop.
  • In the third quarter of 2016, it took an average of 52 days to sell a home. This is down from the 74 days it took in the third quarter of 2015, and down from the 67 days it took in the second quarter of this year.
  • King and Snohomish Counties remain the only two markets where it took less than a month to sell a home. Even though King County saw days on market rise slightly from 18 to 20, it remains the hottest market in the region.

 

CONCLUSIONS

content_16229_WWA_GardnerReportQ3_SpeedometerThis speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, sales velocities, interest rates, and larger economics factors. For the third quarter of 2016, I am moving the needle very slightly toward the buyers. This is entirely due to the recent increase in inventory levels that I believe will continue through the rest of the year. That said, the region remains steadfastly a seller’s market.

 

 

content_content_MatthewGardner_colorMatthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has over 25 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. 

Posted on October 29, 2016 at 7:09 am
Andrew Jackson | Category: Matthew Gardner Report, Seattle Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

43% of King County Real Estate Transactions Involve Multiple Offers

Multiple offers are no longer the exception in the King County housing market. My most recent listing garnered 29 offers from buyers- 29! I was able to efficiently guide my clients through this process due to my 18 years of real estate experience in the greater Seattle area.  

Having an experienced real estate broker representing you is imperative in a multiple offer situation, for both buyers and sellers. Windermere Real Estate brokers work diligently for their clients, and those representing buyers 19% more likely to win transactions involving multiple offers. Also, local brokers are more confident in completing a transaction with a broker from Windermere than they are with any other real estate company.

Do you have questions about navigating our fast paced real estate market? Email me at andrewj@windermere.com – or give me a call at 206-650-4939 – so we can set up a time to go out for coffee and discuss your questions. 

 2015 Multiple Offer Market Share Growth

Posted on March 11, 2016 at 5:59 am
Andrew Jackson | Category: Home Seller, Seattle Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

2016 Remodel Cost Versus Value Report

2016 Remodel Cost Versus Value Report

Did you know that some home improvement projects can pay for themselves, or even earn you a profit when it’s time to sell? According to the Remodeling 2016 Cost vs. Value Report for Seattle (www.costvsvalue.com) certain upgrades may increase your home’s resale value by more than what they cost. 

As home prices rise across the nation, average payback on remodeling projects is up too. “We’ve seen a steady ramping up on both the sales and construction side,” said Jonathan Diehart, director of custom services and published research at Metrostudy. “I think over time that really starts to loosen up prices a bit and allows some of these [remodeling] factors to become more significant as part of the price.”  The biggest year-over-year gains in return were seen for more expensive and complicated "upscale" remodeling projects.

While this information provides a fun insight into which projects might be worth your while, it's important to note that these are just overall estimates–your return on investment will vary substantially depending on your unique home and neighborhood.

Seattle's 10 Best Projects

Seattle's 10 Worst Projects

 

Return on Investment in Seattle


In Seattle, the top 10 most profitable remodeling projects were:

  • Attic Insulation (Fiberglass)
    Cost: $1,249
    Resale Value: $1,877
    Cost Recouped: 150.3% 
     
  • Manufactured Stone Veneer
    Cost: $7,631
    Resale Value: $10,897
    Cost Recouped: 142.8% 
     
  • Garage Door Replacement (Upscale)
    Cost: $3,175
    Resale Value: $4,503
    Cost Recouped: 141.8%
     
  • Garage Door Replacement (Mid-Range)
    Cost: $1,783
    Resale Value: $2,440
    Cost Recouped: 136.9% 
     
  • Entry Door Replacement (Steel)
    Cost: $1,400
    Resale Value: $1,790
    Cost Recouped: 127.9%
     
  • Siding Replacement (Fiber Cement)
    Cost: $16,196
    Resale Value: $18,826
    Cost Recouped: 116.2% 
     
  • Window Replacement (Vinyl)
    Cost: $15,308
    Resale Value: $17,417
    Cost Recouped: 113.8%
     
  • Siding Replacement (Engineered)
    Cost: $15,396
    Resale Value: $17,237
    Cost Recouped: 112.0%
     
  • Deck Addition (Wood, Mid-Range)
    Cost: $12,145
    Resale Value: $12,985
    Cost Recouped: 106.9
     
  • Minor Kitchen Remodel
    Cost: $21,889
    Resale Value: $22,833
    Cost Recouped: 104.3%
     


While all still higher than the national average recoup of 64.4%, these were Seattle's 10 least profitable remodeling projects:

  • Bathroom Addition (Upscale)
    Cost: $86,087
    Resale Value: $60,206
    Cost Recouped: 69.9% 
     
  • Bathroom Addition (Mid-Range)
    Cost: $47,572
    Resale Value: $34,457
    Cost Recouped: 72.4%
     
  • Deck Addition (Composite, Upscale)
    Cost: $41,140
    Resale Value: $29,972
    Cost Recouped: 72.9% 
     
  • Backup Power Generator
    Cost: $13,842
    Resale Value: $10,403
    Cost Recouped: 75.2% 
     
  • Master Suite Addition (Upscale)
    Cost: $262,073
    Resale Value: $197,515
    Cost Recouped: 75.4%
     
  • Major Kitchen Remodel (Upscale)
    Cost: $125,781
    Resale Value: $103,889
    Cost Recouped: 82.6% 
     
  • Major Kitchen Remodel (Mid-Range)
    Cost: $64,981
    Resale Value: $53,778
    Cost Recouped: 82.8%
     
  • Master Suite Addition (Mid-Range)
    Cost: $126,972
    Resale Value: $106,000
    Cost Recouped: 83.5%
     
  • Bathroom Remodel (Upscale)
    Cost: $61,383
    Resale Value: $52,432
    Cost Recouped: 85.4%
     
  • Two-Story Addition
    Cost: $180,558
    Resale Value: $154,472
    Cost Recouped: 85.6%

 

Cost vs. Value data © 2016 Hanley Wood Media Inc. Complete data from the Remodeling 2016 Cost vs. Value Report can be downloaded for free at www.costvsvalue.com

Posted on February 23, 2016 at 7:45 pm
Andrew Jackson | Category: Seattle Real Estate | Tagged , ,

Matthew Gardner’s Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

I know many of you are wondering why we have seen such an increase in housing cost and lack of inventory.  Well just take a few minutes to read Matthew's report.  Western Washington continues to grow in the job sector especially in the tech markets.

 

The Washington State economy has added almost 370,000 jobs since the lowest point of the recession at the start of 2010. Additionally, total employment is 176,000 jobs higher than seen at the 2008 peak. 

The Bellevue and Seattle Metropolitan areas are showing a average market time of 31 day.  While this average includes all of king county, in many markets within King County market time is less than 7 days.  Many of the homes that sell within 7 days are because the Sellers and Listing Brokers have determined to wait 7 days prior to reviewing offers. 

To read the report in its entirety click here

 

 

Posted on February 23, 2016 at 7:06 pm
Andrew Jackson | Category: Seattle Real Estate | Tagged , , ,